Top 5 Global Conflicts Threating Global Stability
Morcam Intel’s Top 5 Conflict List identifies the most significant threats to global stability through a rigorous, data-driven methodology. This structured assessment leverages a numerically weighted matrix, evaluating conflicts based on their scale, geopolitical impact, economic consequences, and potential for escalation.​
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Conflicts included in this Top 5 List meet the threshold for severe regional destabilization, major global power involvement, disruption of critical supply chains, and the potential for broader escalation. By applying quantifiable metrics, the Morcam Intel Conflict Threat Assessment Matrix provides intelligence agencies, military strategists, and policymakers with actionable insights for threat mitigation, crisis response, and long-term stability planning.​
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How Our Grading Works:
Score Range: Conflicts scoring 61 or higher would qualify for the Top 5 list.
High threats (scores 61–80) represent high-risk scenarios with substantial geopolitical, economic, and societal consequences.
Critical threats (scores 81–100) indicate severe global impact, often involving military escalation, resource crises, or existential risks.
Catastrophic threats (scores 101+) represent uncontrollable conflicts with global war potential or system-wide collapse.
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Last Reviewed: 3-30-2025
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War in Ukraine
Status: CRITICAL
Score: 98
Democratic Republic of the Congo(DRC)
Conflict
Status: CATASTROPHIC
Score: 108
Taiwan Tensions
Status: CATASTROPHIC
Score: 107
The war in Ukraine, which began in 2014 with Russia's annexation of Crimea and escalated in 2022 with Russia's full-scale invasion, has resulted in significant geopolitical instability, widespread humanitarian crises and an ongoing military conflict.
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has been plagued by instability and conflict for decades. The ongoing violence has deeply impacted the nation’s political, economic, and social fabric. Key factors include political instability, human rights violations, environmental crises, and the struggle for resource control.
The tensions surrounding Taiwan stem from China's ongoing efforts aimed at forcing Taiwan’s reunification under Beijing’s rule. Globally, this conflict has the potential to destabilize the Indo-Pacific region, disrupt critical global supply chains—especially in semiconductor production.
Gaza Conflict
Status: CATASTROPHIC
Score: 105
The war in Gaza is a high-intensity conflict that has been made infamous by extensive civilian casualties, widespread displacement, and significant humanitarian crises. With over 100,000 displaced persons and ongoing reports of war crimes, it ranks critically on the scale of modern conflicts.
Syria Conflict
Status: CRITICAL
Score: 91
As of 2025, the Syrian conflict persists as a complex and enduring crisis, marked by localized skirmishes, intricate geopolitical dynamics, and devastating humanitarian impacts. Although large-scale offensives have decreased, insurgent activity, foreign military interventions, and territorial disputes involving rebel factions, Kurdish groups, and ISIS remnants continue to drive the conflict.