Ukraine As of 5-15-2022

2 months into the Russian invasion of Ukraine has brought with it a new phase in the battle for the country. Ukrainian Forces have been fiercely resisting Russian efforts across the eastern and northeastern fronts. In the North-East, Ukrainian Soldiers have been able to break through opposing lines in the approximate area of 50°13′N 36°39′E and have reached the border with Russia.

While the region is not under complete control of the Ukrainian forces, Russian efforts seem to be stalling. In response, Russian forces in Belgorod have launched rockets and missiles across the border, targeting the regions of Ruski Tyshky, Ternova and Petrivka.

Ukrainian Forces at border with Russia near city of Ternova, Northern Ukraine.

In the South a Ukrainian offensive rages on, looking to reclaim lands lost and it is headed right for Kherson. By taking a look at the attached conflict map we can see massive amounts of ground (in blue) that has been taken by Ukrainian forces outside the city. This region has been the cornerstone of the Russian efforts because it allows for the security of the land bridge (between Crimea and the Donbas) that they are attempting to establish.

Twitter User @BlueSauron has posted videos taken by Ukrainian drones on the southern front. You can see elements of Artillery of the Ukrainian 59th Mot. Brig firing upon a column of Russian vehicles. While other users like @Neonhandrail have gone as far as successfully geolocating the exact positions where the shelling took place, pinpointing the location as 46.869364, 32.375561.

Geolocation of Ukrainian Artillery Strike on Russian column.

From Mykolaiv, troops pushing into Kherson would be a strategic victory for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, offering them the possibility of threatening Russia’s control over key positions like Crimea. While a direct assault on Crimea would seem far-fetched, if the Ukrainian forces are able to avoid a conflict for Crimea and reoccupy their defensive lines from before the invasion, they will force the Russian officers into a decision, reinforce their foothold in the south at the expense of the north or parts of the Donbas, or hope that their remaining troops can hold off an advance. The southern territory of Ukraine is crucial to the efforts for the Donbas. If the south falls, the troops on the eastern front risk being encircled or even worse, Ukraine risks becoming a landlocked nation.

Heavy fighting is to be expected in the coming days the question still lingering at the top of everyone's minds' is whether Vladimir Putin will use nuclear weapons as a means of achieving a victory in this war. While it is true that the threat should be taken seriously, the use of nuclear weapons (including tactical nuclear devices) evolves this conflict into a larger arena.

What are your thoughts on the rapidly shifting fronts in Ukraine? Should the west get further involved?